Why MLB’s Salary Cap Debate Raises Risk of 2027 Lockout

CBA Overview

With the collective bargaining agreement (CBA) set to expire on December 1, 2026, the MLB and the MLB Players Association (MLBPA) are beginning conversations to try to avoid a 2027 lockout and the financial consequences that could follow. 

According to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, the MLB and MLBPA officials met in New York City on May 12, 2026, to begin discussions regarding the CBA. The MLB’s plan to pursue a salary cap is expected to be the primary issue brought up during negotiations. 

The Salary Cap Issue

Interestingly, the MLB is the only major North American sports league without a salary cap. The MLB believes adding one would help close the gap between high-spending teams and low-spending teams. The imbalance is clear when looking at the projected 2026 payrolls, where the Los Angeles Dodgers are expected to spend $398 million, while the Miami Marlins are projected to spend $74 million.

However, because a salary cap would limit players’ wages, Passan states that “players staunchly oppose.” Therefore, if neither side is willing to compromise on this issue, it could potentially lead to a lockout and, in turn, delay the start of the 2027 season.  

Why it Matters: Financial Implications 

If a lockout occurs and the 2027 season is postponed, players will not be compensated for games that are canceled. Therefore, avoiding a lockout matters so players can continue to get paid. Additionally, a lockout could negatively impact the MLB’s future television rights deal, which is expected to end after the 2028 season. Therefore, avoiding a lockout matters so the MLB can have a strong position during the negotiation of its next television deal. 

There is also the possibility of outside involvement if negotiations are halted. Passan stated that Congress could become involved if it appears that the MLB season could be delayed. While Congress does not usually get involved in CBA disputes, the possibility adds pressure for both sides to reach an agreement before Congressional intervention could become a reality. 

The main challenge for CBA negotiations will be finding a balance between competitive fairness for team spending and financial freedom for players. The MLB views a salary cap as a way to reduce the gap in payroll spending, while players view it as constraining their salary potential. With the possibility of delayed games, lost player salaries, and leverage surrounding MLB’s future television deals, both sides face pressure to avoid a lockout before the start of the 2027 season.